Hi All,
I have done some in-depth analysis going over the last 2-3 years of announcement and financials and I have found that there is a strong correlation between contract wins and data hall fit out. A precursor to a major win is a fit out of data halls. This tells me customer are signing closer to the fit out, potentially de-risking any delays by NXT in constructing new datacentres. It also tells me NextDC from a sales perspective are good at forecasting deals as the build out capacity has led to closed deals. The only exception being the C1 datacentre.
When the full year FY18 results get published in Aug this year i will be looking for the amount of capacity we are building out in advance. Typically we are building out 10MW across the datacentre portfolio and that aligns with annual sales. I am expecting in the full year results there will be increase in the build out of data hall capacity, hopefully 15-20MW. The Morgans video indicated M2 was under going 4 data hall (3, 4, 5 and 6) fit outs. Each data hall consumes 1000m2 of space at has 2.5MW of capacity so that is 10MW of fitout in M2 alone!
Based on this the build out in M2 it is likely to result in an 8-10MW contract win 6 months down the track and reported in the FY19H1 results in Feb 2019. The other location that seems to being looking promising is Perth looking at the future data hall build out and sizing of P3.
So when you see Craig S. mentioning strong pipeline, please note it is likely to close out 12 months down the track and that NXT have had a strong track record in forecasting sales. I have been a NXT shareholder since 2014 ($2 a share) and in the 4 years since, I am the most excited now about the companies growth than any other time. So if you are tempted to make a quick buck with your SPP share you might be better off waiting 9 months for a handsome return.Be patient and you will be rewarded.
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