Facts Don't Lie:, page-155

  1. 1,466 Posts.
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    Thank you for taking the time for the detailed response. At least is seems that we agree on my first conclusion that we are currently warming.

    Medieval/Roman Warming
    I proposed the following opinion
    (There is evidence of other warmer and cooling centuries (Roman and Medieval warms). Different authors using different proxies reach slightly different conclusions about the magnitude of the warm and global reach compared to our current warm so it is unclear whether our current warm is unusual.)

    I have read the IPCC summary and it is very useful to see the data through the AGW lens.
    https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch6s6-6.html
    Using their summary data in fig 6.10 you can pick out the warm and cool periods in the last 1.3 kyr. By eye the Medieval Period in the 11th century is similar to modern times up to about 1990 and spikes another .5C. The only other period like this is 1000 AD which has a very low overlap.
    As you point out the IPCC site 3 papers that conclude the Medieval Warm was not as warm as the current warm.

    upload_2018-5-25_7-24-10.png

    Looking for studies with the Roman Period outside the IPCC contributors yields papers like Ljungqvist, 2010 which I don't have a copy of but the data has been plotted and put in various places on the net.



    We get a very similar result to the IPCC in the overlapping time period with subtle differences.

    Overall it appears there are 2 warming period besides our recent one and they are similar in magnitude with our current period possibly the warmist.

    All this is in line with what I concluded "so it is unclear whether our current warm is unusual"

    A person looking for a more definitive answer could tweak the data/analysis and reach a stronger conclusion. Certainly data post 2000 may start to swing it into the #1 position but winning by a touch does not yet make it 'unusual'.

    It sets up my #2 conclusion that understanding the past - how and why the natural cycles occurred and telling them apart from man-made CO2 effects is important.

    Current State of Modelling
    Your comments give a lot of food for thought and more research on my part.
    As a start I do agree that the proxy data results need more work and differences with a model may not be the model.
    I will get back to you on the rest once I have had time to look at it. This is a very complex topic and of course assessing our ability to predict the future climate is fundamental to the topic.

    Thanks again for your time.
 
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