H1FY18 NPAT was -$87.8 million, meaning they need to turn a positive NPAT of $142.8 million in the second half of FY18 to finish the year $55 million in the black. I don't know when RFG had a NPAT of $142.8 million for a year, much less a half.
Additionally, their outlook was "that retail trading conditions, especially in shopping centres, will remain challenging for the foreseeable future and RFG needs to improve the support it provides to its franchisees as a consequence." And "[g]iven RFG’s ongoing business-wide review and the decisive action being taken by the Group, it is difficult to predict full year outcomes at this juncture."
That's not an outlook which reads to me as "we're about to destroy our returns and achieve an NPAT of $142m for the second half." It's one that reads to me as flat (or declining) revenue another half of increasing service expenses.
Also, it should be remembered that the new CEO said himself in his appointment announcement that "This is a 12-18 month turnaround of the RFG business." Take him at his word. Come back a year from now and see how their results are going. It's along time until the share price meaningfully appreciates, IMO.
HY announcement:
http://uat.rfg.com.au/wp-content/up...ar-Results-2018-Announcement-2-March-2018.pdf
CEO announcement:
http://rfg.com.au/2018/05/29/appointment-group-chief-executive-officer/
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