moody monday, page-46

cwl, its just possible that the rba is trying to jawbone down inflation expectations, but they do seem pretty intent on the follow through action as well so I'm disconting the jawbone hypothesis. The rba approach probably also means that xjo will underperform usa and now even europe over the next six months or so. The sleeper regading inflation is probably the excange rate.If the usd rallies and aud falls, then we start to import inflation through higher import prices. This may in part explain the rba's action cos higher rates will offset to an extent the downside risk in aud as our recession hits. All the same, I think they are overdoing things badly... their approach is almost guaranteeing an oz recession imho.. and will have only very limited impact on inflation anyway cos the things hit by interest rates aren't the things that are causing inflation.. and rudds ham fisted approach is just doubling the downside risk..