As a follow up:
The chart signals I use take out the daily fluctuations and reflect longer term trends. It may well be the SP will pip up to .-13 again (see 1.25c cross trades are the flavour atmo), but it would take me a while to sell 5M units into that. It also never picks top or bottom, just a safe entry/exit strategy. I have mentioned before that to take full advantage of a signal, you have to act upon within 48hrs or thereabouts. This is all IMO.
Refer weekly chart below. The mid term trend has been broken, and that trend has existed for seven (7) months. I put the same up here in comparison to AVZ, that picked a sell at ~25, it's now ~15c. It also picked the A2M sell signal 4 days before it imploded downwards (refer my old chart threads).
Also, the cup and handle failed - we're back at the base/lower third of the base.
I would have hoped the SP would increase (and it may) up to the next news event and sell into that - but hope is not a trading strategy, as I have found out over time. I also know that once momentum has been broken it's damn hard to turn around.
I said in a post last week or so I saw nothing that led me to sell (and I didn't), and I would put the chart up if that changed, and I have. I can't sit hear a preach how good the chart looks and not be objective when its not.. I really want the SP to go up, but I can't hope it up and I swore I would sell when my signals told me to.
The weekly shows the buy at roughly .007 and then a fake sell at .012 at the bottom of the cup (fake, because signal strength did not reach 50 - it reached 48!).
The bottom two bars are (weekly) momentum showing it about to cross below zero (the purple line) and the money flow index looks like it's about to turn negative (back into the purple zone). That reflects whether money is flowing in or out of a stock.
I can usually tolerate the daily indicators being up/down when we have solid fundamentals and the immediate future looks good. This is reflected in the ebbs and flows of the signals - but not when the critical indicator of the weekly turns and fundamentals change. The fundamentals changed Monday - the technical (daily and weekly) turned yesterday.
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