Everyone already knew this.
Nor do high transport costs necessarily spell doom to a project. In Australia perhaps but not in Africa.
Most operational costs are onsite mining and processing with transportation being relatively minor. For AJM, its 70% onsite costs and about 12% transport costs ($39/tonne) to arrive at a total cost of $325/tonne.
BGS in Mali is planning to drive 1000km to port and its transport cost is naturally higher at 30% ($99/tonne), yet its overall PFS projection of costs is below AJM.
Why? Because of higher grades and lower onsite costs. AVZ also had a homogenous deposit which would reduce mining costs even furthers. Then there is the tin which if extracted, is worth around $100 for each tonne of produced 6% Li concentrate.
"
It has been mentioned numerous times that the Tin credits will offset any transport costs. Speaking on Tin - does anyone have a comparison of those tin grades compared to other tin mines in the region"
- Haplo
Not a regional tin graph but should help. 0.1% grade is clearly a credit and not viable for a mine on its own really. My estimate for value if extracted during 6% concentrate production. 6 tonnes of ore X $27,000 per tonne X 0.001 (0.1% grade) = $162/tonne ...say a $100 per tonne of 6% concentrate produced. Ultimately depends if its simple to add to the processing circuit.
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"Why would the company which had spent months promoting this route ($300M expenditure on the road) is now flagging alternate routes?"
- Cosmoterios
As mentioned, this road isn't being fixed up purely for AVZ but to open up the region to development. Traditionally, huge volumes of tin ore have been moved out of Manono not via roads but using rail and barge mostly. The absolute cheapest method right now IMO to export from Manono would be truck 50km west to congo rivir, barge 150km downstream to the railway link for export. I'd rather AVZ stick to something that can be implemented now, on the cheap and improve it over time. A 'rehabilitated' road in 2019 is still needed and would be sufficient to bring in the equipment need to build the mine (plenty of mines have been built via unsealed road haulage in Australia).
"No freehold. As I said, large companies will only buy Lithium from the Congo if they have NO OTHER CHOICE.
With Lithium, they have some choice. For Cobalt, they have no other choice or much more limited choice."
-Bluegoose
And what about copper? They can get that elsewhere but they still buy all that DRC has to output. Ultimately, people will buy their minerals where its cheapest. In regards to lithium, I'm of the opinion demand growth is underestimated and supply growth is as usual, overestimated. Half these studies take expansion plans as gospel when the reality is that delays are more common than achieving timelines.
Plenty of very profitable operating mines in the DRC largely by the Chinese who have no issues operating there.
"Interesting to note that Manono to Durban is being explored as a possible transport option. According to google maps, by road this is 3,333km, which is is 85km shorter than Melbourne to Perth for referance.
Obviously it is prudent to look into all options, but on face value to have this as an option is a bit of red flag to me, perhaps it is just looking at all options, but I can't help but think maybe there are some issues on the routes previously hinted at. "
-dunny29
You clearly haven't done your homework. No one moves goods to Durban by road. Its a rail link and its how much of the cobalt and copper gets out of the DRC and with good profits. I should add that at peak, Manono was exporting 120,000 tonnes of tin concentrate per year. Clearly they managed to move that volume (about 1/3 of a 2MT mine) with a viable logistical solution over 50 years ago.
In regards to the SP, we have a combination of factors IMO,
* General retrace of many lithium stocks from their highs
* Regional legal issues with miners in the DRC, election getting closer
* Missed timelines/delays by AVZ
* Hype deflation from the 'imminent TO' chanting, no more ML twitter sprucing
Resulting in low volume broken up by big dumps as big fish exit to chase other stock profits like WFE.
Still, at 250 mil market cap now, this deposit is looking cheap (obviously it worth nothing if its never mined). AVZ needed to provide viable transport solutions and Airguide needs to get more than just MOU on the table.
