For the last few years, its only been tracking interest rates, nothing else...
A quick fit just by sight, from July 06, easier for this first one, not done computationally yet, of Gold Price, London PM Fix, with a Gold price generated from just the US overnight cash rates and time offset Gold Lease Rates. A few common fine features starting to emerge.
If US rates get down to say 2%, and Lease rates hover at 0.3%, then Gold would be ~$US1050. Lower than originally thought due to the inclusion of Lease rates in this model.
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