A quick reply in regards to AVZ being a stranded resource with unfeasible economics. I'd also like to say that I appreciate the debate you've struck up.
Starting with the economics. The most recent offtake terms that I'm aware of apply to GXY and TAW, who would receive US$905/t and US$880/t for 6.0% spodumene, respectively. These agreements were struck on 14/12/16 and 26/04/17, respectively. The fixed prices both also include an adjustment of US$15/t per grade variance of 0.1%.
AVZ's initial met test work produced concentrate grades of up to 6.3% and many seem to believe this grade will increase upon further testing. Considering lithium prices more than doubled between 2016 and 2018, I struggle to see where this consensus figure of US$700/t comes from. Unless it is simply the average between the actual offtake figures above and Morgan Stanley's 3-year lithium prediction. I personally find those predictions to be very unlikely.
As to the location, I like to use the Kibali Mine as an example, located way up in the remote northeast corner of the DRC. Randgold had to install 1600km of road first before they could bring construction materials to site and develop this ~20Moz gold mine. They also built 3 hydropower stations out there. Total capex of US$1.83b.
Kibali is expected to produce 730,000 ounces of gold this year, almost US$1 billion worth of gold at current spot price. 2017's all-in-sustaining costs were US$773/oz. Compare this to Australia's biggest producing gold mine, Boddington, which is expected to produce 665,000-715,000 this year at AISC of US$950-1000/oz.
How does any of this relate to AVZ? Firstly, Randgold paid US$500m for only 70% of this remote deposit in probably one of the sketchier parts of the DRC. Secondly, they purchased it from Klaus Eckhof's Moto Goldmines. Thirdly, they arguable picked it up cheap at almost the bottom of the market - in 2009, when gold was trading between US$800-1000/oz.
Here are two great images from a
January 2018 presentation on Kibali that I think could one day apply to AVZ. Noting also that production at Kibali actually commenced in 2013:
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