I think it is much simpler than all this. Somewhere in the 340 to 360 RMB / KG range for NdPr most of Lynases expenses are covered and most of the price increase goes right to the bottom line. ( my guess on 340 to 360) Lynas is just following NdPr prices up.
Look at all the charts you want but Lynas SP will follow NdPr regardless of direction. Mometum will cause delays when NdPr direction changes. Blips excluded. Major news excluded.
The elections were a big negative hit but most of that has been factored in now, took longer than I expected. Lynas will go up as long as NdPr goes up. Go flat in NdPr goes flat. and down in NdPr goes down.
A little positive movement on Ce and La would not hurt but so far that is not in the Tea Leaves.
Momentum is important when NdPr first stated down in April stock continued to rise. Helped by Q conference call. Momentum carried it. It ws waiting to fall. The elections trigured the fall. The drop was much biggger than that justified by election., because prices were down.
Lynas SP is controlled by REE prices. China controls REE prices. That does not mean there is not a great potential for Lynas. It does mean there are limits on what Lynas managment can do to change SP.
LYC Price at posting:
$2.55 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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