Checkmate? Can AVZ be the first? Not likely.
I don't think anyone holding really truly thinks AVZ is going to go mining, despite the excellent commentary from
@Scarpa which (hope I'm not misquoting) argues that going mining is by far the correct path now. There needs to be a show of 'going mining' to flush out the t/o offers.
It seems that almost everybody holding is planning on a Chinese t/o. But the Chinese are not stupid either and know how too do an NPV calc, and the price they will offer, if there ever is an offer which there may not be, will IMO correspond to the relatively high cost nature of this deposit (very low mining costs balanced by high Capex and high freight). It's a big deposit and a beauty but in the middle of nowhere, and Capex and freight costs will weigh down the offer if/when it comes.
Size beyond a certain level isn't that important - anything past year 20 in an NPV has almost no value anyway. So a 10mtpa operation would go 20 years on 200mt.
And in this instance there's a legitimate question whether the volume potentially on offer could adversely affect the Li20 price.
If no offer comes, then the next CR to 'go mining' will be telling.
