BUD: Where are we? May 2018, page-225

@aks4058

if you look across the board takeup for energy management solutions appears to be starting to rise appreciably for all players in Australia and elsewhere - sector as a whole is starting to suggest this is now leading edge - no longer bleeding edge - which was the problem in 2012-17

BUD has what appears to be the biggest shotgun in terms of tapping the most markets - of the asx listed players - so if that leading edge adoption trait applies to some degree globally the outlook could be phenomenal

but putting numbers on it at this stage beyond what BUD''s derived from its distributor projections and commitments is folly imo - so sp projections are meaningless beyond fact market is obviously looking to see start of a j curve in june qtrly numbers.

@retiredyoung's numbers are entirely reasonable for that short term expectation

parsing which solutions offer the best fit for which types of clients is impossible to judge.

some of the solutions are back office/deep instrusion - effectively system replacement and energy specific.

i expect those to be adopted by the most technically minded buyers with a pure focus on energy mgt

BUD Ohm's core competence/differntiation is in analytics and 'end to end' capture/analysis of all utilities and in fact all data client wants to cross filter.

its a mgt and behavioural change function - not just energy but all the measurable utility flows and in fact all data flows if they wish

I see its core advantage is its open ended ability to capture and integrate as clients decide to cross match different data sets

eg. a shopping centre that purely wants no fuss cost minimisation of energy bills would go with another system imo - one more specialised and deeper into the control/billing. though they'll often get blowback where they cant mesh with existing control systems already in place

but eg if they want now or expect in future to cross match site traffic feeds as they are captured by AI-linked cameras against utilities use and control + mgt + other decion making - then BUD's architecture stands out.

specialisation vs generalisation always allows for a variety of market niches

for mine - the adoption rates starting to emerge here give me a lot of optimism about UK, Europe and other regions

if that leading edge adoption rate is broadly global then having the biggest shotgun will have been the best route to big shareholder returns

BUD's time with Thor will have given them insight into how to frame that growth in mgt value over time -
ie you start with mgt just wanting to measuring utility use in RVs - but it can grow out to tracking vehicle use - ultimately to things like gps monitored positioning and emergency assistance offerings

Dicker Data's own experience with its new building construction and re-design is a similar case study in how the value of insights grows with immersion

you want to help the client build not just mgt understanding but if you can - client value offering

it wont own the market. its more likely after an iphone style 20-30% of target marketshare - but capturing the most innovative and forward thinking groups among its suite of users

question is whether that kind of positioning can be filtered via the 3rd parties - and that there's enough immediate value to get initial buying

but the carbon credit solution is a good early example of 2 way info flows and mass customisation - which is the trick - to be able to offer 'customised' solutions that appear individually suited but are in fact of a large market subset

i happen to think BUD should inherently win on the law of large numbers - it will be shown in enough markets against zero or relatively few competing offerings that it will capture good income from those sources if the adoption 'pull' wave is a factor in those societies

the 1st/2nd world has just spent 12-18 months or so talking about IoT/AI in a broad sense - that means prospects everywhere are being conceptually opened up from tyre kicking to early adoption as they get familiarised with both the ideas - plus get to see the earliest case studies of benefits

but mass psychology has to show up in the numbers. ie Ohm has to show it can win a subset of the demand that is starting to arise.

early signs case study wise are promising. but no more than that until they are - until then here's my favourite refrain