faith friday, page-66

just woke up and closed my short possie from last night for a 15 point gain on the spx. earlier in the week, i said that we thought we may hit a low of 1315-1330 on the spx. i got my hit this morning.

what next? i'm still not sure which one of my scenarios is in play. price is now sitting under a band of moving averages on the daily from 1345-1351. moving averages on the weekly are still indicating we're in a downtrend and that band on the daily should provide strong resistence to any rally.

so do we rally til early march or do we play the 1998 scenario and continue to fall til early march. earlier in the week, i said that if the 1998 scenario was in play, the u.s. should finish consolidating that triangle pattern by wednesday/thursday and then break to the downside.

i'm favouring down til early march ......the macd on the daily is also close to crossing to the downside and this is close to confirming the 1998 scenario but not yet and could easily be reversed.

i've had a good run for the last 3 weeks (with only 1 minor loss of a couple of points on the spx) and this is the first time in that period that i'm just not sure enough either way. so, back to scalping for now.