So,
I doubt many of us here thought we'd still be wading around the 24c mark after the following de-risking activities were released to the market:
- Operational plant
- Deleterious elements for battery grade such a Mg, SO4 and metallic impurities at acceptable levels
- Land acquisitions
- JORC (1)
So why are we continuing to float around these levels?
In my opinion, there are a number of factors that are currently having an effect on the price, including but certainly not limited to:
- Trade dispute (US / China)
- North Korea / US face-off
- End of Financial Year sell-off for tax losses
- Cyclical momentum for the lithium sector currently down from late 2017 highs
As well as this we are suffering from issues closer to home, such as:
- A number of delays by Argosy Minerals (merely miscommunications in some instances) in getting the processing plant up and running (market expected production in March)
- Industrial grade lithium reached rather than the Battery Grade that management have been clearly stating they are targeting
- NO GAS
- No new brine producer in 20 years (after ASN's failure to reach sufficient grades, and then we only get industrial grade - market is sceptical of new brine producers being able to cut the mustard)
So, what do we take from all this?
Nothing has fundamentally changed and the risks and issues are ALL temporary hinderances rather than ticking time-bombs.
The new financial year will begin soon, the trading disputes will get resolved, North Korea won't begin WW3, the EV revolution is only beginning, and there will be PLENTY more cycles in the lithium sector before it has all been said and done. The short-term delays won't matter in the long-term as long as PA uses the time to get the process right (which is the most important thing for Argosy at the moment by far). And, the gas already HAS been turned on, which should enable us to reach BG since the washing stage can now get rid of all the SOLUBLE impurities.
So many of these setbacks have been blown out of proportion by the market and HotCopper as a whole, but one by one Argosy are continuing to resolve these. I'll admit even I have been swept up in the nervousness to the point where I'm trying to limit posting as much as possible until we here about BG. In fact Battery Grade, which, as has been shown by many great posters on this forum, is actually not necessarily the be all and end all - just look at ORE and run the numbers.
I also believe a large part of the market haven't realised that there will be a second JORC, which will be upgraded once the PEA is released. And remember, we are open at depth people, who knows how deep this Salar is?
So in short, Argosy in progressing fundamentally, the risks mentioned above are all temporary, and Argosy is trading at bargain basement prices. I am really looking forward to the next few months, and need to keep reminding myself to look at the big picture... because its pretty goddam impressive!
(20min delay)