Ann: Operations Update, page-169

The tug o war is a good analogy, but would add to it, the rope has a sticky component that has to also be overcome before movement begins.
On "differential pressure alone will not shift fluid in shale faster" I agree on the "alone" as other factors are also in play, (permeability, viscosity etc) But differential pressure increase is the target of gas lift plan, it is the physics of the gas lift plan and will increase flow if all the other factors are steady, by increasing DP 88e have applied more weight to the rope.
We know there is some flow into the fractures, as the top hole does gain pressure when shut in, so more DP will equal more flow.
We know the perforations are open as they have been tested. I believe some have confused perforations with fractures. Perforations are small holes pierced in the well bore extending just past the concrete sealed liner. These are the points of origin for the fractures to be created from and the flow path back into the well. When the fractures are created they will link up, especially near the well bore where a large proportion of the rock is smashed. As can be seen in the joining/ connection of the original two targeted perforation zones. So flow back through a perforation can come from a different fracture from the one it originally initiated. In short proving flow in an individual perforation does not prove flow from the fracture, there may be many fractures that are not flowing.
88e modelling of flow rate under N2 lift is based on inputs derived from previous cycles of pressure build up and flowback. Current flow is now a long way off the model, which implies to me there has been a change over the winter shut in. Reaction between the frack water and the reservoir rock remains top of my suspect list, as that is the thing that has had more time to develop. It may be bad news for now but is not an end, it would be an engineering problem to fix. Access to the discovered oil in IW1 will remain a target, time and money though.
In the meantime lets hope the opposition lets the rope begin to slip as we are at close to maximum pull we can exert.