frustrating stock..., page-24

entropylord,

the main issue is that they didn't have a water pump installed. Heavy oil often comes with a lot of water. These kind of fields can produce a 1,000 bbls of oil simultaneously with several thousand barrels of water. It doesn't prevent the oil being produced, the water just has to be disposed of. Shutting down a well temporarily to install a pump is hardly an earth-shattering event. It is quite likely that in the first couple of years of production there will be further shutdowns as various issues are sorted out.

In any case, whether these initial wells are producing 1,000 bls pd or 800 bbls per day shouldn't make any material difference to the valuation of a stock like Salinas. Don't forget, the net margins on heavy oil production are leveraged to the spot oil price, hence the NAV of project has increased dramatically in the last six months. Even if flow rates are reduced by 20%, the cash flow is still much greater than anticipated just a few months ago. It certainly doesn't warrant the share price falling like it has, hence the large volumes of buying right now.

I am just as depressed as I imagine you are with the price dive, but we are in a weird market. I don't think it is a reason to beat up the company. They have done a pretty amazing job to go from nothing to where they are in just two years.