COB has been belted.
The obvious positive from their PFS was that capex (even in Aus) is about $100m per Mt rather than $800m per Mt like CLQ. Justifies the Sulphide rationale.
The negatives are that they have a low IRR and they used essentially current cobalt prices to generate it. Given the IRR is the same as CLQ though and capex is about 28% of CLQ it still seems more likely to get funding.
COB strip ratio is 3.69 which is a lot better than ours but that is the main area I see them likely having an advantage. Their head grade is 0.08% with minimal credits. If we look at CLA on a CoEq basis our head grade is approx 0.15%. I think that will far outweigh the strip ratio for us.
I think COB might have been better off going with a staged approach rather than huge straight up.
I am not so sure anymore we will get the IRR we want to see, but the benchmark at the moment looks like 20%.
I am not sure banks will want to finance on that IRR but if none of these projects get up there is no Cobalt so it might be up to end users to enter the fray to fill the funding gap.
I don't remember giving a 30-40c target but based on current SOI 30c would be less than $250m MC fully diluted. If we can get a post tax NPV up around $600-700m at an IRR of even 30% based on what we have seen I think that would be justified.
Cobalt sector has become very on the nose though, and short term we might not see much joy.
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