I think the poorly worded announcement can take some of the blame for the market shellacking today.
(1) They could have been more positive in their assessments of FY19 - rather than quoting assessed growth in book in the 3 nominated areas.
My understanding is that post GG, SIV will have funding of $430m for the hospitality side of things consisting of $230m (senior corprate facility) and $200m from Westpac as a warehouse facility.
At 1HFy18 there was already $295m placed and presuming 2H simply marked time then, the growth figures they gave today suggest FY19 will see the following:
Australia - $268m
Canada - $40m
NZ $28m
Unallocated and available - $94m
Given their consistency on RoA of around 6% = $20m less costs of finishing up GG, ASIC costs.
Of course there is a lag involved to meeting this target but $18m of it is already baked in (or 46c eps).
The questions are (1) what is the cost of putting GG to sleep (2) extra costs of rolling out the new Hospitality focus and (3) costs of ASIC nosing around.
(2) Given that ASIC are only nosing around the "light commercial" side of GG, they could have dispelled some concern by quoting that light commercial was around 21% of GG business. Presumably close on 80% is off the hook.
I would think that given this is a discontinued business, the market has over-reacted today.
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