Been out since around 9.30am, and not the market I was hoping to come home to.
Having said that, although the market is king but I'm not sure that I agree with the treatment given to REU at the moment. My take on it as follows:
* Operating cash flow of $30 million. This is a positive;
* NTA $1.14 per share at balance date. However this is at cost for the CRE rather than based on face value. Also, most property values are now 12 months old;
* Impact of CRE loan spreads at face value is actually 4.6 cent reduction in NTA (half what I thought possible). However, "Every loan continues to perform" and no bad debt exepected at this stage;
* In short, NTA would likely be at least $0.90 per unit IMO - in line with what I previously thought possible.
My estimate of NTA allows for a discount to book value on the sale of whatever property/ies are sold.
Plasmod3 ... I don't agree with you comment re NTA decreasing "quite a bit" if they sell half their property portfolio (guess that depends on the definition of quite a bit though. I guess I've cut the NTA by a fair amount too). I still think 90 cent base case is reasonable.
A high yield play? Not while they have suspended distributions, however at current levels, assuming they pull off sales at reasonable values, this is in line with what I though possible at least from a NTA perspective (albeit I wished the unit price of REU reacted differently!! lol )
MJS
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