LYC lynas rare earths limited

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$9.99

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Chemist1959

6,475 Posts.

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10/07/18

13:32

Post #: 34251972
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Originally posted by kittyboomboom ↑

I don't see anything unexpected being announced in that though, massive increase in reserves (already flagged), record production of NdPrd for at least June, possibly whole quarter (again already flagged), debt paydown already announced, improvements from NEXT slowly being realized (already flagged).
That's not to say the market wont send this straight up on those factors, I'm just suggesting I see no catalyst, particularly now that LYC is more than 30% of my portfolio.
Only catalyst bar prices rises in RE's would be condisoil approval which doesn't look likely anytime soon, maybe a big investor stumping up for a downstream value add, something along those lines.
Never know how long the market will take to wake up to a good opportunity.
What everyone will/should be expecting is guidance for record breaking production for next 2 quarters consecutively with production costs pretty stable and cashflow slowly building, seeing as that is essentially expected what catalyst do you see?
Appreciate any guesstimates before the fact as many are unwilling to put forward their estimates.

Anyone expecting record production for the quarter after the interruptions from inspections?

Expand

My guesses, using calcite googles and throwing darts:

On tonnages, best quarter (4700 total and 1500 NdPr), just beating Q1; best year (17600 total and 5500 NdPr).

COP/kg is up, but within 10% of 2017; note that I'm using "Ongoing operational, production and administration costs" as a proxy for production costs.

ASP +14%

Best year on revenues by a good margin (25% over FY17).

There's a $8M payment to AELB for decommission bond this quarter; also Q4 NEXT outlays $12M?

Last edited by Chemist1959: 10/07/18

LYC Price at posting: $2.21 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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