Gold at AU$44,000/oz, page-180

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Goldbullsach

1,550 Posts.

224

11/07/18

12:23

Post #: 34274112
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Originally posted by AverageJoe ↑

On the 3July daily is the reversal bullish engulf bar. I would normally play the break of the highest point with a buy stop but the syop size is rather large making the risk reward very ordinary.

Another way to play it would be to place a buy limit on the previous red bar before the engulf on the 2July as a retrace entry but not really worth the risk since it would be a very shallow retrace.

Again another option is to wait for the price to retrace back into the bullish engulf bar and find some intraday support. There isn't a clear one in my books except if you Fib the low to high (low 3july to high 9july) today's low comes in at perfect 61% ratio. This bit is the hindsight because I would never in my wildest dream play a retrace when the momentum is actually bearish! However it really cuts away the swing point stop size by two thirds making the setup a great risk reward on paper.

Daily signals for me currently which is keeping me away from gold. Very difficult to manage gold price action on the intraday TF. I have better success in the stock derivative and so far a 'no brainer' holding 2 on a weekly TF.

On the US-China trade tariff front, I am getting mix messages from the different asset class. On 1 hand major stock market indices are going gang busters and we are seeing the resurgence of dow/sp500 but copper/zinc seems to be in free fall with IO unable to reverse. Coking coal on Comex is diverging from IO and I miss WHC massive rally. I remember this time last year, my bias caused me to revert to the retail mindset thinking WHC cannot continue to rally if one view this through the IO chart! Bias anchoring can sometimes infect the mindset thinking subconsciously it is able to pick tops and bottoms! Missed the march pullback through ignorance and now all of a sudden it is testing near the all time high! What shall I do?? Similar fashion to BPT as it kept rallying. Shame as I waited for a deeper pullback away from the all time high but it just had one shallo and burst through! Story of my trading life, miss great winners. FOMO you reckon??

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Wasn't looking to get too technical just looking to trade the breakout. Not to be.

Got in with early shorts on AGL and ORG today which are going much better and got my eyes set a fair bit lower given ACCC comments.
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0 Great analysis

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