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Ann: Becoming a substantial holder from MUFG, page-66

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scottpev

612 Posts.

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16/07/18

18:47

Post #: 34375581
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Originally posted by R66 ↑

the deal is not done yet and all those people thinking institutions know less than they do. If you think there are better stocks to short you can email them about it. You can't out compete institutions/shorters and they know what they are doing.

1. they pay discount brokerage
2. their information net work is unmatched by a home trader/investor
3. if they dont trade/invest their own money which makes them inherently less emotional thus better at decision making

as i pointed out in charts, lithium price have dropped since last quarterly, thus profitability potential would be less, this would impact on our P/E and PEG negatively blindly banking on good news or deal being done is one fast way of blowing your account. I'd be tightening my stop loss near the announcement periods.

I now both trade and invest in GXY and quite firmly believes in electric and automated car revolution, but like i also pointed out in news thread, any automotive revolution in the past have taken roughly 15 to 20 year period (horses to cars, 72 oil crisis to 80 and 90s emergence of economical japanese cars dominating the world, now we are currently 3 years into the electric car thing). As any investor worth their salt should know, for a technology to replace older technology, its GOT TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER. imo electric cars are not yet significantly better than internal combustion cars yet for various reasons that I'd be more than happy to discuss. But for now, how long will it take for the infrastructure to support electric cars is my scope of investment period which also face many other challenges and complex factors such as lithium price. I'm saying at least 5 years seems about correct for any meaningful investment returns. Anyone thinking one good quarterly or POSCO deal is going to fend off any and all institution/shorter and cause GXY price to shoot up in perpetuity is just kidding themselves.

P.S. look at any shares around 3 to 4 dollar in consumer index and check their revenue and fundamentals and then go check GXY, you'd realize GXY (now) isn't that much of a bargain considering the risk. Again in the for development and return in the long haul, trade the short flux with the instos.

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You make some good points. I agree that the new technology has to be significantly better for the established one to be replaced. Comparing ICE to electric, well that depends on what you're comparing.
Getting from A to B . Yes no better. Greenhouse gases out the rear pipe. That's a game changer wouldn't you say. But as you say it depends on your investing time horizon.

GXY Price at posting: $3.18 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Becoming a substantial holder from MUFG, page-66

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