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830 Posts.

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16/07/18

22:34

Post #: 34379073
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Originally posted by timber1956 ↑

@trader8888

"So where do you plan to hide in the next crises?"

Given that the 2008 GFC was a once 80 year event, I don't expect to see the next crisis of similar proportion. My great grand children can sort it out.

The "monetary experiment" that some call quantitative easing is not unprecedented. Something technically similar happened in Australia in 1983 at the time of the floating of the AUD, but not many people were even aware of it. On that occasion, the "available" money base (M3) didn't change and when the policy reversed interest rates returned to where they had been before, and life moved on.

So I am more sanguine than you. If the Fed starts selling down its bond portfolio, I would expect the US treasury curve to steepen. This might cause a flattening in housing demand and knock a point of the GDP for a quarter. But it wouldn't be the end of the world scenario that might justify investing in precious metals to protect your savings against systemic banking collapse.

All the best.

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From elementary statistics, a 1 in 80 year event can happen two years running, it does not mean it happens every 80 years...

Same as flooding. A 1 in 100 year flood has been known to hit twice in the same decade.
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