how stupid can denial get?, page-569

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szaba_the_hut

15,038 Posts.

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17/07/18

07:52

Post #: 34381587
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Originally posted by mjp2 ↑

OK, I'm not going to waste much time on this.

On your first point.
"
OK - what is the Anthropogenic CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity)? AR5 consider it is most likely something between 1.5 to 4 degrees C (most likely but not certain) per doubling of CO2. We havent been able to rule out that climate sensitivity is < 1 degrees C per doubling of CO2 (or > 6 degrees C). On that basis we simply do not know if an ice age can be averted by current anhthropogenic CO2 emissions.
"

As I've hinted at already, climate sensitivity isn't relevant here. Climate sensitivity gives us the equilibrium temperature after warming has been initiated by CO2 gasses, when also accounting for earth feedback processes over time.

Equilibrium outcomes are not relevant when you are determining if there is any net forcing to even initiate a change.

The question is, solely, do insolation changes due to orbital variation reduce radiative forcing by enough to offset the (measured) radiative forcing change of greenhouse gasses. Hence is there ANY net cooling effect from the sum of Milankovitch impacts and CO2 impacts.

The answer is there's no net cooling forcing. Measured CO2 radiative forcing is too much for the Milankovitch impacts to overcome. Equilibrium effects and climate sensitivity has nothing to do with it.

Again, you are denying the science on a false analysis.

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You are right that you didnt put much time into this. I dont mind if you could please take a few days and go and read up a bit more. Before you state what the net effect of ice age forcings and CO2 forcings is you need to quantify both. You cant (yet) do that with any clarity so you cant claim any particular net outcome is valid or invalid sorry, thats how science works sometimes. Uncertainty means exactly what it says.

Last edited by szaba_the_hut: 17/07/18
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