de ja vu, page-49

Hardball

I think we got out of it easily in 2000/3 and our turn is next.

I think that will come with the finish of the commodity run.

My opinion has always been that we will cop a one two punch like 1970 and then 1974.

In other words, yes a bad decline first, then a continuation of the topping process over a few years and then a probable 50% decline.

So I still suspect we escape this bear shortly but a low probably into July 2013 will be a whopper for us.

You can't trade such macro ideas unless you have more guts than I do, and anyone who fights a market gets KO'd in the first round.