@MarketingMan being in business you yourself would know about cyclical events.. it is part of every single market.. every single sector.. every single business i.e correction. The Lithium industry had to have its correction and cycle too. It has bottomed and needs to have an accumulation/flushing phase for its next leg.. we have been calling them “Lithium bull runs” as
@Quanta coined it. No stock or market is immune to cycles.. it is how reward value is found. This is the Macro environment and currently all evidence is showing me it has reached the low. The fun part should start soon with new highs for everyone at some point
Once you understand the overall market position then you look at the finer details (
@billyen does this when he combes through every single stock in a particular sector). The finer details of AGY are that we have derisked majorly in processing while adding substantial assets and infrastructure to the books, Maiden JORc, as well as keeping a sizable cash position coming into the final derisking event with processing. You all can see that we have much stronger fundamentals now than we did with SP peak.. so why doesn’t that translate into a higher SP?? Because of the position of the CYCLE!
It’s simple..If you bought at a much higher price than today you will have to wait for atleast one of the following;
1. A significant event that rerates the stock upwards within current cycle position (i.e Battery Grade production) and/or;
2. The cycle to return to highs
Why do people buy into the stock market when they don’t know the first thing about it? Generally because of FOMO. They then usually complain, become emotional and sell which locks in the wealth transfer to the ‘smart money’. A Long term patient holder doesn’t worry about the daily, they look at where the sector will be in 3, 6, 9 months or more, they don’t get emotional with pip movements on the daily, they look at the big picture and sit back.
None of you have to believe a word of this but in my experience it is all truely how markets work. I sold down in february due to a significant macro change over in the US, I went to a different sector that was moving, then moving back to Lithium after I sensed the bottom was approaching. Now I have 3x as many shares and will be buying more next week because Imo AGY are positioned well to take advantage of both the points 1. and 2. mentioned earlier.
Should we have sympathy for those who won’t try to educate themselves before chucking cash at the markets based on tweets? No, tough love is the only way. Pick up a book instead of posting on HC.
However IF you do want to win at this game.. Educate yourself as much as possible, remove the emotional and above anything be Patient, it is the only way to get an edge on the professionals.
GL
