aed sinopec joint venture...60pct sinopec, page-54

Thinking about this and here is where I arrive - feel free to pick this apart...

Asset 400
Cash 600

less

Debt 350
Creditors 60
Costs (Mac Bank) 30
Well Remediation 45
Hedge Book 50

Value 465

If the market sees this as extremely positive and does not mark back the values quoted and there is no detail in the deal that reduces the value to AED the highest I can see AED shares trading in the next month is around $3.10 (divide by 150).

I think it is quite possible for the market to value this deal at 65-80% of the above back of envelope calcs until detail is known and field is up and running smoothly (if the new operator decides to drill a new well for example instead of fixing the exsiting ones budget $65MM).

Prediction for coming week(s) is $2.15 to $2.48.

Ok, tell me I'm wrong!

p1000