de ja vu, page-145

BR

When BHP was up at 48 it was my opinion that BHP would probably see a 12 month bear market. I thought it could hit 24. So far it has hit the next 8 multiple at 32 (got to 31), but 24 would appear to be the next lower target if new lows there are made.

That was based on its extreme overbought nature and its digestion periods in the past.

The best comparison seemed like late '91 to late '92.

In that case the mid rally was to about May and then down.

I also feel that may match China's low.

Can the rest of our market go up without resouces? I don't know, I guess it depends on how severe the resource decline if it does happen.

Although copper has broken out it could be forming a three peaks and a domed house.

Gold looks very vulnerable to me but not to the experts.

That doesn't change my view of an important low soon and the bottom if a "normal" correction.

It sure is possible we can get a May top and a decline into Oct/Nov if we are doing a '74 repeat.

I probably favour the former about 2:1 because of cycles so long as we don't get a top for Armstrong here instead of the hoped for low.