Good comment L2. You are 100% on the mark. Back in October 2007 Mae commented that prices being paid for 2P reserves were around US$2.50/mcfe and appeared to be increasing. The MD did refer to a multiple of 3P reserves so 600 looks OK, but 700 is a real possibility.
So, why no news from the company? The MD stated quite strongly at the AGM that he would not release news until he had proof of sustainability. He is also on record saying he would not release news in "progressive updates" as he wanted to "make one big announcement". Well he has been true to his word so far – no updates!.
Last BBradio report he said "20 mmcft/day"
The www video suggests that the delays just might be due to the weather. Well this week it is a pleasant 30-60F with another storm warning. A big improvement on what we saw in the video.
Announcement is imminent. My bet is it will be a big one, but not as big as the third quarter cash flow report due end of April. That will be the time to hang the For Sale sign out. Smart investors will see this coming. I expect the price will go to $1.50 and hang there as not so smart investors heave a sigh of relive and get out. More buying opportunities then for the rest of us.
What will MAE sell for? Best case (maybe) 700bcf (CC, Helper, OK) @ $2.70 means SP around $5.60. L2 suggests $2.87 for 500bcf @ $2.. Reality will be somewhere in between. How about $3,50?
When will it sell? As soon as the new reserve report comes out. Deal done in August-October quarter IMO. So if this a good buy right now, or is it not??
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