monnnnnday, page-153

hbg,

Great looking chart.

Agree that BHP should be a key driver of where XJO/XAO goes from here.

Not really convinced that BHP will necessarily react the same in breaking from a symmetrical triangle now were heading down.

I've got a more bearish view I'm afraid. I normally use channels (and bollingers) rather than just trendlines - for me, I find it means you have a better chance of getting the angle right, ignore false breaks and get a better feel for where a price is likely to run to.

If you run a parallel downtrend line on your chart along the lows since its peak, you can see that 1-2 weeks from now, it should hit the the bottom of the current down channel at about $33 and with the weekly lower bollinger about $34ish, I would normally expect that would be the low.

However, a couple of things make me think $28 though is possibly the target to watch for. Firstly, we have $48; $40, $32 as key levels and $28 is half another $8 move again; also approx 50 fib of the bull mkt; is within the key consolidation/congestion area of late 06/early 07; and is consistent with a $6 reversal move back down from below the $34 jan 21 close low.

Also, if you add another parallel downtrend line below that one, the same spacing away, it runs off the July 07 high and also hits the bottom price on Jan 22. So on Jan 22 BHP didn't just break the bottom channel it ran all the way across to the bottom of the next channel. So IMO this is likely to happen again - and the bottom of this second channel is at about $28 in 1-2 weeks time.