The current administration fee on MySuper is 0.35% pa; therefore bringing it down to 0.15% pa would cost 39bn$ * (0.35% - 0.15%) = 78m$ pa, or 13% on ~600m$ Group Net Operating Revenue (pre-ANZWM).
That would be partially offset by a higher fixed Member Fee, though (and possibly by other charges as well); note that BT Panorama have announced flat fees of 180$/540$ pa (depending on the type of account), which is significantly higher than IOOF’s 117$ pa fixed fee.
My rough estimate is that the net impact of these two effects would be in the range of -5%/-8% (depending on the assumptions) on Group Net Operating Revenue (pre-ANZWM).
Obviously, this assumes an instantaneous adoption by IOOF of BT Panorama’s new fee schedule, which is an extreme scenario. In practice, such a transition would likely occur over a two-year period or so.
Given that the historical rate of margin compression entails a shrinkage of IOOF’s revenue to the tune of -4%/-5% pa (everything else being the same), what today’s announcement by BT really means to me is just that the current competitive landscape will persist for the foreseeable future.
So, when put into the appropriate context, I see it as being confirmation of an existing trend, rather than a shocker.
Cheers
P.S.: I will excuse your self-admittedly lazy approach, as I felt the topic did deserve some attention, and you did bring up some numbers after all ;-)
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