petrol to reach 3 dollars per litre, page-3

i know the market is being hammered in general, but i thought we'd stabilised above 75c. you really have to scratch your head and ask who would sell this stock when we are only what, 2(?) months away from a possible barrel of oil? why on earth would you sell this stock? all i can think is that there are some serious margin calls being made at the moment.

so in regards to your ASX10 comment, well, surely not. however, lets engage in some mutual fantasising, and do som enumbers

wadda we got (and i acknowledge I might have the numbers VERY wrong here, but i'm giving it a go and someone else can correct)

okay. 400m ton coal- that they are telling us about. like all of QLD, heck, all of OZ, there's a lot of coal out there.
1 tonne produces 1.5bb oil, so 400m ton = 600m bb oil

is it 25c per litre to produce? so 160 x $0.25c = $40bb production cost

I read they are hoping to raise a billion (or half a billion, or 2 billion- whatever, its immaterial if this really does work) to build a plant that can do 20,000b a day.

So 20,000barrels a day sold at $100 (can we see oil coming down that much?) less $40 to produce =
$2m - $800k = $1.2m per day
With a known useful reserve of 400m tonne coal oil = 600m barrel oil = $36b.

thats a lot of money

so the obstacles are, others develop the same technology and cut part of your lunch (ie your pie just grew infinite times but you have to share some of that). hardly a problem.

so add to this the straight up power generation with marubeni, and existing clients like vietnam govt. i'd say if just one barrel of oil comes out of the SCALE plant (and if it works for 1 barrel it will make 20,000, or whatever size they decide to build it) and well, the share price goes a lot higher than many could imagine.

so i can see how, IF a barrel really does come out of the tap, that the Prime Minister would come along for an opening. But this really is an all or nothing kind of thing. IF the PM were to be there, then surely you'd have Swan- close to company over the years) and Fergussen- minister for resources, they'd want to be out there too.

i feel sorry for these guys the most. they can't even buy shares in this. a lousy $200k salary and they get to go to the plant and smell the ca$h, and they can't invest in it.

so back to the start. WHY would anyone sell LNC now, when they are so close to the moment of truth?

i got a mate who sold out of fortescue at $0.60 and he can't let it go emotionally, he;d have a few mill now. This one might be a ditto for a lot of people too.