It's a quirk of investment markets that the biggest performers in a complete cycle for a given mineral are often not the larger names, closer to production but the speculative name that is most unlikely to get to production. But those gains don't usually flourish till the 2nd half of the cycle or so. Agree that in the early parts of a mineral upswing the producers or near-term producers should move first.
Rough order maybe something like: Low cost producers, High cost producers, Low cost near term producers, high cost near term producers, low cost with BFS, high cost with BFS, high grade with JORC only, lower grade with JORC only, explorers with no JORC. Then there's the management, broker and register factor, which can skew things quite a bit, especially for smaller mc names.
In summary. May as well get the dartboard out to predict which stocks do the best and worst
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