Check out MOG announcement on 20 Feb ...
You will see a slide from APACHE which shows the Pg and reserves range.
The 32 mmbo mean reserve figure should be applied with the 34% chance of success. This is great news!!!!
The value to MOG is therefore:
32 mmbo x 0.1667 x $22/bbl = $117m !!!! unrisked OR
117 x 34% = $40m risked!!!
Not sure how many shares on issue fully diluted but 11m/0.14 = 78m shares. Using this the values are:
$1.50 unrisked OR $0.51 risked!!!!
And these are based on Apaches numbers, which are likely to be conservative.
Also note that the Pc is 23% - this risk should be applied to the truncated mean of 43 mmbo.
Yep, definately worth getting into based on this equation.
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