SP next stop, page-57

All good except your fair value comment if it's relying on the Arrowhead report valuation.

I've said it many times now but I'll do so again - the Arrowhead report generated a NPV for the India Project (of about A$110 M) and then divided it by the shares on issue to get a fair value of the SP. Since then the majority of ESIOAs and ASIOBs were exercised either directly or through the ELF or the other loan.

Doing the calculation under the present state of the register gives a number of around A$0.023 or so (last time I did the calculation about a year ago).

That said, if you want an estimate of the FV of ECT shares now you would have to bulk up the NPV of A$110 M from Arrowhead to take into account probability weighted estimates for Australian LV developments, future sales from the R&D plant in BM, inclusion of the increased probability of the $300M commercial plant and RoW royalties you get (IMHO) a number of around A$0.053.

This increased number is clearly very rubbery as it includes estimated values for highly contingent revenues and the basic Arrowhead modelling has assuredly been overtaken by events in the last few years.

We are all waiting to understand more about the revenue model - I expect an initial negative reaction from the Chicken Littles in the market followed by a slow burn as the instos get their heads around it.

Agree that the stock is clearly undervalued (IMHO).

GLTAH.