IMO I don't think either a class action or asic inquiry will get too far.
Questions are what were the drivers of the forecast, what could they be expected to deliver and were they risk weighted?
If we would have easily hit or exceeded the forecast in the event that TGA and EU approval, and the company had a valid reason to believe that such approval would come in time to hit the forecast, then there is nothing you can do.
Risk weighted forecasts are far from guaranteed. The timing looks suspicious, but that doesn't mean that they intentionally misled the market.
Surely Ratty would have known his trades would be heavily scrutinised if the forecasts were wildly inaccurate and doubt he would have so blatantly risked jail time.
The % miss was huge but the absolute is not. A month of cc 3d sales in Europe might have made the difference.
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