Running discussion on SP, page-9328

The Chinese are strategic in that they seek to get access to minerals so that they can leverage of these and not pay through the nose. That was the intent of the Chinese play in iron ore in the midwest region of WA but that didn't affect the profits of BHPB and Rio (albeit has allowed a check on iron ore price growth). Then again, China does have a lot of minerals internally so why are they looking elsewhere for them - well a lot of their mineral deposits (take iron ore) are low quality. Yes China has a long term outlook - you would too with over 1 billion people to feed in your country and with people moving from regional areas to urban areas (hence the demand in minerals)

Finally, I disagree with your comment around downstream processing - in the past it was true downstream processing took place in China and they just bought mineral inputs, but if you look at Greenbushes, Tianqi and Albermale are planning to build hydroxide facilities near the port of Fremantle. This is just an example of China possibly doing downstream processing in the host country. Certainly in terms of the failed Oakajee project in WA -iron ore - the Chinese were planning to export a value added DRI product instead of iron ore.

Finally, whilst the Chinese dominate certain commodities - such as rare earths - in terms of lithium just be mindful there are a lot of prospective projects worldwide and non-Chinese owned lithium projects as well (including in the DRC itself and outside AVZ). This is a race to EV and the need for inputs. If China seeks to lock up the market by not developing mines IMO, and seeking to cartel its way with controlling the growth of EVs, someone else will develop elsewhere so China's control of the EV market is less so IMO (but at the moment some of that control is actually exercised in its dominant position in the rare earth market not in lithium btw but rare earth projects outside China are started to be progressed as well). Where China will control the market is getting the lithium now and entering into contracts with the relevant manufacturers now to lock up EV supply going forward by matching EV demand to supply.

The strange thing to me is the reluctance of European and American manufacturers more aggressively entering the space. That is the difference between China and the WesTern World. China see opportunity and moves, but the USA and European companies spend more time on their models seeking to look in feasibility variables before committing and often they come late to the party and then whinge that China is locking up the market. In summary, reason why China does well is they have a higher risk apetite than other countries and take their chances (and in part that is driven by the need to feed over $1 billion people and industrialise their economy IMO to provide opportunity).

Also why the hell is this discussion taking place only on the AVZ thread and not lithium thread. If what you are saying is correct it will impact the financials of all lithium plays btw.

All IMO IMO IMO IMO