Using an average of peer resources and market caps, the only subjective component in my opinion is the probability of the project resources matching those of its competitors.
MQR/MEI/BSX are Cobalt neighbours who are also very early stage. All have been massively deflated in previous months and none have any notable drilling results (
in my opinion). MEI was up to 8c a few months ago, but is now sitting at 3.3c for a ~$19M MC. MQR peaked at 58c but is now less than half that for a ~$11.3M market cap. BSX have gone from 50c+ to now 13c for a ~$13M MC.
Personally, I believe there is no reason MTC's Cobalt alone isn't as valuable or more than any of these companies, so even in the current bearish battery minerals market I see easy upside here on
any results, and
many bags on exceptional results, and further growth when the Cobalt price heads back upwards.
For Lithium, here's something I stole from another company:
View attachment 1224345
Not sure why they failed to mention ownership proportions, Tawana and Kidman resources are JV's so would obviously be much, much higher market caps had they been 100% owned.
LTR is displaying how cheap it is for $32M while it has a 10-15Mt at 1-1.5% exploration target.
The initial, independent resource target at Cancet ALONE is 15-25Mt at 1-2%.(not including the untested East extension which can massively increase strike length)
Not sure how you came up with $5M Chairface, as another example CXO is a $34M market cap and they only just announced a tiny 3.45Mt at 1.4% combined resource. That's not just uneducated misvaluation either, they have Chinese partners pouring money in too.
The maiden Lithium drilling massively derisked Cancet to me. Even aiming low, trying to match TAW's deposit and planning a JV like theirs, Cancet alone could easily justify the $220M+ MC that TAW is sitting at. The Tantalum intercepted at Cancet suggests very similar credits available as TAW's in my opinion.
Considering the projected Lithium grade being much higher (for much lower mining OPEX and better economics) and the Canadian jurisdiction having more favourable taxation, even if the deposit at Cancet somehow fell short of its target or even matching TAW there is headwind to still beat that ~$220M MC for HALF ownership (i.e. MTC holders won't only make 3x returns due to dilution despite the MC going up 20x).
Cancet was just the very first shot taken at
11 projects (not including extensions of which there are many).
(20min delay)