Excerpts:
Lays foundation for increased production targets over and above Lynas NEXT
uplift. Proven classification of Reserve contains 285kt NdPr oxide, which would
comfortably support 10ktpa NdPr production profile for 25+ years.
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“Potential for replenishment and further growth”: we note the 2015 Resource update envisaged a 25+ year mine life at 22ktpa total REO, while the latest update shores up a 25+ year mine life at 26ktpa total REO, and comfortably in our view. We see the Resource update as a strong precursor for further growth in production rates in the near term, and provides assurance of longevity and grade to potential long term supply for use within auto OEM supply chain.
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Resource update addresses dire insecurity of supply. Doubled LOM relative to most recent statement (Dec 2017) indicating end-of-mining in 2031.
Including Duncan also suggests to me increasing interest in Dy et al. Even the farsighted can see HREE potential, especially as ROW sole source separator. One myope making horns; ROW making magnets, etc.
I got everything I wanted from update.
Going forward, everything hinges on successful waste remediation by Lynas LAMP in Malaysia, but production growth is most sensitive. Lynas LAMP ramp requires government approvals in the next six months and it seems likely that continued failure to identify a solution to long term waste disposition will result in approvals being withheld; not a certainty. A production miss or downgrade of the much-touted 7200 tpa NdPr by Jan 2019 will hit share price.
Bottom line: Deservedly positive review of resource update by Foster.
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