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Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge: 10 -12th Aug, page-48

  1. 1,215 Posts.
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    Hi @sci9249 - If you are just looking for a tipping service like "equity story" then I can't help you. I've tried quite a few in the past and found that for various reasons none of them were at all worthwhile.

    If you are looking for chart software that can be used to develop a Trading System then in my opinion you can't go past Amibroker Pro. I wanted to develop a system to trade CFDs on low margin, i.e. below 20%, with the target markets being the ASX300 and NYSE and NASDAQ. Aiming for trades of 1 to 5 days duration, target profit of about 1 to 2 ATRs, and reasonably tight protective stops and indicator based dynamic trailing stops. I wanted to backtest my potential system(s) with each trade being set up using conditional orders as they would be in Iress, my trading platform. I needed software that could replicate this type of trading. I also wanted to do some Montecarlo analysis with the target variables being the trade buy and sell prices, i.e. variations in the trade prices that can replicate the sort of slippage that can occur and hence the possible impact this would have on the system's equity curve. I also wanted to do some optimisation on the various degrees of freedom in the system, i.e. indicator lookback periods etc, not with the aim of optimising them but to select values that exist within a stable system output equity range. Once I set up a rudimentary system I found that I was getting far too many setups and hence trades each day for the system to be manageable, let alone exceeding my capital constraints. So the software also had to provide a means for ranking all possible trades within a portfolio backtester, and preferably by including an equity function that can determine the systems success or failure over a specified period in the past on a stock by stock basis.

    Well, Amibroker Pro can do all of this, and a hell of a lot more.
    It also does all the standard charting stuff as well, and there is a library of afl code for just about any indicator you can think of.

    The data providers I use are Paritec DataDirector for ASX daily data with 1hr updates, and Norgate Premium for US data.

    With your question re the dud spec market I had a slightly different view. The spec market bull run seemed to me to be aligned somewhat with the Bitcoin run. My thoughts were that the specular gains being made with Bitcoin resulted in some speculative exuberance that flowed over into the ASX spec market and especially the Lithium and related battery stock markets. Whether that's correct or not I guess doesn't matter, but it is quite apparent now that the Bitcoin and other Cryptos, and the ASX spec markets are now significantly different. So now it's just not good enough to watch for a breakout and climb aboard. Its more a "Bottom Fishing" and range trading market these days with trading the news, i.e. selling into good news, being a strategy to watch out for.

    I've included below an Amibroker chart of Bitcoin. It looks terribly like a lot of the ASX spec stocks that I've reviewed, but is also what I would call much better behaved and predictable. Just using the oscillator I put on this chart, the "WaveTrend" indicator, following its signals and applying those to DCC and probably other Blockchain stocks like FFG would probably result in a very profitable system. Something I'll be watching in the future. I'm pretty sure I can backtest this in Amibroker.

    Bitcoin-20180810.png

    Well all the best Sci - I hope you get the answers you want to your questions. - Wilf
 
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