Its getting to the point now that if folk didnt get out on the way down you should stick to their guns. I think there is more downside but bottom picking is a dangerous game so you might as well hold on if your already in and ride it out.
I think the lesson is that different sectors of the gold market rise in a stepped process, first gold, then large producers, then mediums, then the rest, there is no room for low quality in any sector, any uncertainty disqualifies a stock from the game eg cash, results, management quality, hedging etc and that there are other sectors like ag that are todays gold, people cant eat gold, there is allot of dogma in the gold sector thats verging on the ridiculous eg all fiat will fail , these types of dogma have no real historical precedence , there has never ever been a global currency crash or global hyper inflation, we also need to be careful of AUD returns comparative to USD, the facts is AUD gold stocks are getting half the returns of USD. Folks are also underestimating the extent of this global crisis, spec are getting hammered across the board , not just in gold and some folks have gone all in on gold specs, when the real gold story is about wealth preservation not getting fabulously rich, a long term gold investor is still way ahead, even in the specs and small producers some are way ahead on a 2-3 year basis, yet folks are complaining about 6 month performance when 3 year performance is up 2-400%, there is also a fallacy about correlated sector performance thats not borne out by any evidence, folks talk about sectors as if they move up and down together, there is zero evidence of these broadly correlated sector moves, its all about individual stock FA quality, the games to tight to allow any for broad sector moves where dodgy stocks get lift with a sector move.
its also about the JP Morgans of this world, who manipulate stocks and basically eat out our lunch by spilling us out when they sell down and short a particular stock, we read these games they play as weakness or strength, when in reality they are reverse playing the TA back against us, they bust through a support line on the upside, while building up their shorts, we pile on and then they take it down.
There are stocks I own in other sectors that are so lightly traded that I could take them down 20-30% by myself in a few seconds, if I did that on a very bad day I might scare the loose holder half to death and take the price down 50%.
There is also broad naivety among some of the new traders, like stop losses, how many times have I read "well you should have had stop losses in place" when in reality stop losses is what the large traders prey on, or "buyers building" when in reality market depth doesn't reflect anything whatsoever, if I can stack a sell side just out of the money, then sell it down trailing my own sells behind it and spill the stop losses what are the really large traders able to do?
Then there are the churners, who using different trading account trade with each other and churn the stock up and down while still retain an the same aggregated base holding.
If you want to see this action right now got have a look at the course of trade on SGX, see the autbots selling down JPMs holding? , no doubt they hold a good percentag
e of the shorts, how many stop losses did they trigger today?
Nows the time to buy folks Ive been buying all morning.
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