Seasoned investors, help us., page-36

Ultimately it comes down to whether demand will outstrip supply.  My suggestion is folks have a read of the quarterlies of ORE, NEO, GXY and other producers and see that they are getting record prices for their spodumene.  They also explain the Chinese domestic price drops and predict a strong second half of the year.   They also warn not to take the spot price market in China too seriously as battery grade material is rarely traded there and large volume contractual prices are what China pays for lithium and those are sitting at record highs still.  

In regards to that infamous February Morgan Stanley report predicting a 45% drop in lithium prices, one needs to understand the assumption they made.
* Assumed demand in 2025 of 578kt LCE with 9% EV sales penetration.
* Assumed supply of 727kt by 2025.

This is the usual problem of underestimating demand and overestimating supply.

For example,
* UBS predicts EV penetration of 16.5% by 2025 [1/18]
* Matt Bohlsen predicts 500kt LCE by 2020 (6% EV) and 1.3Mt LCE by 2025 (20% EV)
* EV growth rate so far this year of 65%, almost twice as high as Macquarie predicted (another bunch that keeps getting it wrong) at the start of the year. 58% last year, 41% year before. At 50% growth rate, 28% EVs by 2025 (upper bound).
* Joe Lowry, industry consultant and former FMC:
"Morgan Stanley's predictions of an additional 200K MT of supply from Chile by 2025 and a steep price decline is another demonstration of the "big name" analysts not understanding lithium supply, demand or the cost curve. Albemarle's La Negra II expansion taking years to ramp up is just one example of the difficulty bringing new capacity on-line. SQM has little incentive to expand beyond the ~50K MT required in their new agreement. The statement that 500K MT of new capacity will be online by 2025 is well off the mark"

The last point is very important.  Assuming that all company timelines as gospel and will be fulfilled is totally nonsense.  Remember this graph?  

Anyhow, I believe October or so, the sector should start to turn around like it did in 2017 and 2016 which correlates to the peak EV sales season.