oh paddington bear.....i layed it out for you and still nuffing. :)
a read a few things and one thing always leads to another -starting with the trading game. btw, does anyone have any feedback on their mentor program? good, bad, anything?
ok - i'll make it easy and just spell it out....but please recognise that this is just my crazy interpretation and would love feedback.
i also did some work on my spx chart ealier in the evening to figure out my strategies for the next couple of weeks on the spx and a few of my favourite stocks.
fwiw - based on the weekly, next resistence on the spx is at about 1335 and then 1351. the daily is looking good, so i figure that 1351 may be doable by in the next 1-2 weeks. however, above that, we start heading into some hefty resistence at 1397 and then about 1425. the current bearish set up of the longer timeframe moving averages leads me to think there is not a chance in heck that this will be broken anytime soon without some further downside.
and then came across mclaren latest. and lo and behold, i've come up with the same target and date as mclaren (and for anyone wanting to make a snide remark, i posted my dates here about two weeks ago).
i had also reread carolan stuff recently and went back to check out what he had to say about spring panics. this is what carolan says:
"Spring panics are in some respects the opposite of autumn panics. Where the autumn panics listed above fall three to seven weeks after the autumn equinox, the spring versions are on the opposite side of the calendar, three to seven weeks after the vernal equinox. The positioning on the lunar calendar is opposite as well, with the spring panics showing the same clustering as the autumn ones, but this time around the full moon instead of the new moon."
this places the window around the 20th of april. my next series of turn dates suggests the final low may come in early may.
The low was a classic big gap to new lows and recover to exhaust the short term move down. The day wasn’t impressive since in didn’t have huge volume and couldn’t hold the gains. But the “FOLLOW THROUGH” the next day was very good and indicates a low of some magnitude. I was worried because the last move up was an 11day struggle and was weak. But the move down also started to struggle and became weak when each time it broke to new lows the index would immediately bounce back. The index has showed a wide range day that closed on the high and may need a day or two to consolidate that large move. But this rally should test the February high quickly by the 28th or there is something wrong with the move up.
The consensus numbers were as extreme as at the October 2002 low so there is evidence to expect a low along with this pattern of trending. The low came in on 150 calendar days from high, 90 to 99 days from high (a normal time period for a thrust down in a bear trend) and 45 calendar days and 135 points down from high. All indicating a possible low of some consequence. Now the big question is how far and for how long will it rally, minimum in time out to April 8th we’ll discuss those probabilities next week.
treggs, now that i know you use a similar set of moving averages, i have a question for you. i only have data going back to early 1980's. thus, i'm limited in my ability to backtest the current pattern on the weekly. the best comparison we have from the data i have, suggests similarities to the 2000-3 decline - and that we may still be a long ways from being out of this bear market. what do you think?
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