NEU 0.81% $12.25 neuren pharmaceuticals limited

Bell Porter Review, page-7

  1. 191 Posts.
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    I wouldn't throw the Bell Potter baby out with the bathwater. The valuation of $2.30 is purely of the deal with Acadia, and includes a discount for a 40% chance of success at Phase3. So, in order

    1) They have not attempted to value any drugs other than Trofinetide in NA, which leaves the rest of the world, a population of about 6,700,000,000 up for grabs. It's not just Yanks and Europeans who can spend on drugs.

    2) None of the other drugs Neuren has have been valued, and they have worldwide application

    3) We have been told that chances of phase3 success are usually around 60%, and it seems Neuren's board fancy them a good deal higher than that.

    All of which leads me to believe that the BP valuation is a pretty shallow piece of work, albeit with a few crumbs for investors. I will be interested if there is another valuation as lilypily suggests. Maybe it will be of more assistance.
    Last edited by perrier: 17/08/18
 
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