Good luck. Buying businesses in structural decline is very difficult (i.e. it's hard to get them sufficiently cheap), and PMP has a high fixed cost base which compounds the issue, so it's no longer of interest to me (well, maybe if it traded down to a >30% FCFE i'd take a look). The circulation of catalogues has declined by only ~8.5% since 'peak catalogue' in 2012^, yet that's been sufficient to decimate the industry - that tells you something about the economics of the industry. Given department stores & specialty retail combine for 22%^ of total catalogue industry circulation, what happens if Myer, DJs and/or a few big specialty retailers go to the wall (Myer's almost there already)?
Multiples as a shorthand valuation tool don't work for wasting assets, so you'd be better served doing a DCF in which the business runs off at various rates over the next 5-10 years.
I bought PMP in mid-2013 in the mid-30 cent range, and got out in the mid-80s just after the merger was announced. I've learned more since i sold than i did during my hold - i got really, really lucky.
I'd be interested to hear some updated thoughts from @bourse...
PMP Price at posting:
22.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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