quiet friday, page-31

pennies.

I am a fan of McLaren as everyone knows.

His point about the current rally highs needing to be exceeded is very important for other reasons as well.

His significance is that is 4 days (1st degree or minor reversal) and 60 days from low.

The day before or after Easter was the closest Armstrong turn time and if that little rally was a high then heaven help us. That is what it did late 1973 with the market then heading down in an up Armstrong leg.

It would be normal to expect funds causing a month and quarter ending rally and pension and super inflows into the first couple of days of April and a biig spurt up might win my bet with Jaolsa and also allow a couple of weeks of easing back.

However, I believe the US has a mid April tax tme and some financial year end is end March and there seems to complex procedures where stocks sold can't be rebought for 15 days after selling etc.

So there may be tax loss selling and other mechanisms that encourage anything but a quarter ending rally.

I believe the lower we can finish this month the better from an oversold monthly indicator point of view.

I would like to see lower and a modest April and weak May could do it such as the Nov '87 to Feb '88 period.

Below is monthly XJO with the turn ups from below the blue line never being taken out in price since 1982 anyway.

MACD has declined nicely but as in the post 1987 period it suggests less than stellar upside for some years.

Also we have a potntial 62 month cycle top in May which last time was just the centre of a 2 year choppy period befor a further move up and then an impled July 2013 major low.