Crypto your first five points are secondary influences that have been promoted to primary influences in the case of CNP due to overreaction by the market.
If an extension is announced and the US does not suffer a major shock in the next few weeks I think market sentiment on CNP will improve significantly. Like apples I share your doubts but obviously on balance I am bullish.
The AFR article on the other string is the best summary of the situation I have read in a long while.
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