a few rough calculations on share price, page-8

This is just one, i got about 15 of these using diff assumptions lol.
I got another one where they build rail 2 years into production. but anyway - this isnt that one.
This assumes a bubble bust pricing situation for phosphate
even if only 10 year mine life but bubbles in the near future and busts it doesnt matter MAK will rake in big cash when it counts wooooohooooooooo


CAPEX 60
Debt 0.5 30
Equity 0.5 30
Mine Life 10
Interest rate on debt 10.00%
Assumed raising S.P 1.2
Depreciation p.a 6
Dilution 25
# of current shares 100


Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ore treated ('000s t) 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600
Grade (MINERAL) 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00%
STANDARD GRADE 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30%
Concentrate recovery 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
Metal ('000s t) 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548
Price US$tonne 450 650 450 350 300 200 150 120 100 100

Inflation 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Exchange Rate $A/$US 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Smelter charge US$/T
($ million unless otherwise shown)
Other operating costs (?)
WASTE '000s t? (OPEN PIT)
Metal Price A$/t 0 500 722.2222222 500 388.8888889 333.3333333 222.2222222 166.6666667 133.3333333 111.1111111 111.1111111
Metal Revenue 1253.250774 1810.251118 1253.250774 974.750602 835.500516 557.000344 417.750258 334.2002064 278.500172 278.500172

Less TCIRC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sales Revenue 1253.250774 1810.251118 1253.250774 974.750602 835.500516 557.000344 417.750258 334.2002064 278.500172 278.500172
Marketing 12.53250774 18.10251118 12.53250774 9.74750602 8.35500516 5.57000344 4.17750258 3.342002064 2.78500172 2.78500172
Net Revenue 1240.718266 1792.148607 1240.718266 965.003096 827.1455108 551.4303406 413.5727554 330.8582043 275.7151703 275.7151703
Less

Operating cost/t 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393

EBITDA 1015.133127 1566.563467 1015.133127 739.4179567 601.5603715 325.8452012 187.9876161 105.273065 50.13003096 50.13003096
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 54 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Debt Repayment 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Debt Outstanding 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0
Interest Cost 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0
EBTDA 1012.433127 1564.163467 1013.033127 737.6179567 600.0603715 324.6452012 187.0876161 104.673065 49.83003096 50.13003096
Taxation Depreciation 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Depreciation carried fwd 60 54 48 42 36 30 24 18 12 6 0
Exploration carried 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pre-tax income (EBT) 1006.433127 1558.163467 1007.033127 731.6179567 594.0603715 318.6452012 181.0876161 98.67306502 43.83003096 44.13003096
Tax @ 30% 301.9299381 467.4490402 302.1099381 219.485387 178.2181115 95.59356037 54.32628483 29.6019195 13.14900929 13.23900929
Project Profit 704.5031889 1090.714427 704.9231889 512.1325697 415.8422601 223.0516409 126.7613313 69.07114551 30.68102167 30.89102167
Cashflow project -54 709.3031889 1095.514427 710.0231889 517.2325697 421.2422601 228.4516409 132.4613313 74.77114551 36.38102167 36.59102167
THE BOTTOM LINE
NPV @ 5% $3,185.96 NPV/SHARE FD 23.17058719
NPV @ 10% $2,641.67 NPV/SHARE FD 19.21214786
NPV @ 15% $2,222.22 NPV/SHARE FD 16.16162586
NPV @ 20% $1,892.75 NPV/SHARE FD 13.76547397