IF lease carries weight, and it has in the past to some degree, the recent long term cycle from 1996 to now has been concave up. Lease spiked at high positive values at two spots, the cycle minimum in late 1999, and the other at the base of the concave in 2001, http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html, a local minimum.
They are now negative for the first time in this dozen year cycle, LBMA site, http://www.lbma.org.uk/statistics_current.htm, doesn't have them as near as kitco for that spike down, but this could then be a mark for the top for this cycle.