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guys I would like to make you aware that major institutions are providing iron ore forecasts for 2019 and 2020 which indicate benchmark FE62% seaborne price is between $60-$62 USD. This is only 7% drop from current levels. These institutions are Macquarie group, Westpac, the World bank and some others I found, with dates as recent as 2018 July.

Couple this information with the following,

FMG target production 165-173 wmt (constant or less than this year)

the new higher quality mine (eliwana) permitting the sale of the higher quality product 60.1% Fe only has a reserve size of 213mt. It provides a marginal improvement to the weighted average of Fe quality, currently 57.1%, expect this to be 57.8% for the second half of FY19 Only.

Lastly the dollar conservatively, forecasts of between 72c-74c USD.

Coupling all this information and the company earnings fall significantly for 2019.

My calculations show that if the above forecasts are true then Fmg share price will fall to $3.10-$2.80 due to the reduction in earnings by this time next year or by the time the iron ore price meets the forecasts of $60-$62 for 62%fe seaborne.

I was a holder as much as 2 weeks ago however have reversed my position and purchased short Mini Warrants, as of 31/08 am fully short the stock. Apologies for providing the grim view in this forum however I thought I would share my information to recieve your feedback or help those who aren't sure with my opinion.