new quarter tuesday, page-103

Time for another repetitive long term view.

Markets topped in the expected time frame and have bottomed in the expected time frame.

Despite the views of some I respect, I still believe we are in a topping pattern or if you like a non bullish phase for many years to come.

My analysis is that this is just the initial punch and that a harder one will land before a new bull can emerge.

Although I am not a fundamentalist, I believe like Soros that this is more than your average financial hiccup.

Much has been made of Bernanke being a student of history and so well equipped to thwart another great depression.

I think Armstrong may have it correct with his model suggesting 1932/7 as the next equivalent.

All the same, the causes and cures of financial hijinx are never the same and using old medicine to cure a new infection seldom works.

This has all the hallmarks of a lengthy workout economically.

Any market action that mimicks a V shaped turnaround should be treated with suspicion, not to say it won't happen.

In fact it is probable that attempts at new highs are most likely over the next year or so.

It would be most unlikely to see a huge and lengthy bull market starting here from both a fundamental and cyclical viewpoint.

I would be happy to be proved wrong, but I suspect the only gurus that survive the next 7 or 8 years will be those that play the ranges.

In other words selling the overbought story and buying the oversold on a medium to long term basis should be the way to go IMO.